book price
id selection odds book model market EV model EV market model method
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1 Max Verstappen (NO) 1.39 72.0% 80.8% 51.5% +12.2% -28.5% single
2 Kimi Antonelli (NO) 2.41 41.5% 60.9% 59.5% +46.7% +43.4% single
3 Max Verstappen (NO) 2.60 38.5% 54.4% 24.5% +41.4% -36.4% single
polymarket · event 2026-17 · f1 · captured 2026-10-09T10:05Z · odds dollars · USD
╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────── assumptions ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮
│ • EV is per unit staked: probability x decimal payout - 1; decimal payout = 1 / the book's implied probability. │
│ • Legs on different races are independent: the slip probability is the product of their probabilities. │
│ • Legs on the same race are priced jointly from simulations when they are available (passed in, or a stored combo │
│ run with exactly these legs); otherwise the product of the marginals, flagged 'correlated: EV approximate'. │
│ • The market's slip probability is the product of its legs' prices: no exchange lists the slip itself. │
│ • Model and market are shown side by side, never blended (owner, 2026-10-07). │
│ • The market price is the freshest linked exchange's mid (bid/ask midpoint, else its last price, else the tape's). │
│ • As of 2026-10-10T10:20Z: the model's newest run cut off by then, and each exchange's last tape price by then (no │
│ bid/ask). │
│ blend: none (owner, 2026-10-07; docs/sportsbook/slips.md) │
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