
######## gemma4-12b-q8/general
raw readout reproduced (max |diff| vs release dumps): {'dev': '1.8e-15', 'final': '1.8e-15', 'final-flagged': '1.8e-15', 'final-seen': '1.8e-15', 'bench': '1.8e-15'}
fitted: {"Ttype_temperature": {"0": 3.461, "1": 7.491, "2": 6.538}, "Tdis_alpha_beta": {"0": [1.23, 0.221], "1": [1.988, 94.493], "2": [1.878, -0.939]}, "Platt": {"0": [0.982, -0.024], "1": [1.278, -0.372], "2": [1.387, -0.089]}}
dev log loss: {'Ttype': 0.6042, 'Tdis': 0.6068, 'Platt': 0.6006, 'Isotonic': 0.6613, 'Hist': 0.6014, 'H2': 0.654} -> choice by protocol: Platt

  == dev (n 4500, 4500 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.772 [0.759,0.782]   0.186 [0.175,0.200]   0.414 [0.393,0.438]   1.687 [1.584,1.803]   +0.125 [+0.112,+0.134] / +0.075 [+0.065,+0.085] / +1.083 [+1.002,+1.171]
  Ttype       0.772 [0.759,0.784]   0.062 [0.053,0.074]   0.340 [0.323,0.356]   0.604 [0.575,0.633]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.770 [0.758,0.781]   0.063 [0.054,0.076]   0.341 [0.326,0.356]   0.607 [0.579,0.635]   +0.002 [-0.004,+0.006] / +0.001 [-0.000,+0.002] / +0.003 [+0.002,+0.004]
  Platt       0.771 [0.759,0.784]   0.061 [0.051,0.073]   0.339 [0.323,0.355]   0.601 [0.572,0.629]   -0.001 [-0.008,+0.004] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.000] / -0.004 [-0.005,-0.002]
  Isotonic    0.773 [0.761,0.785]   0.068 [0.059,0.080]   0.340 [0.325,0.356]   0.661 [0.624,0.700]   +0.006 [-0.003,+0.014] / +0.000 [-0.001,+0.002] / +0.057 [+0.041,+0.074]
  Hist        0.772 [0.760,0.785]   0.048 [0.042,0.061]   0.339 [0.323,0.353]   0.601 [0.574,0.626]   -0.014 [-0.019,-0.003] / -0.001 [-0.003,+0.001] / -0.003 [-0.007,+0.002]
  H2          0.764 [0.751,0.775]   0.080 [0.070,0.091]   0.357 [0.341,0.373]   0.654 [0.623,0.684]   +0.018 [+0.004,+0.029] / +0.017 [+0.009,+0.025] / +0.050 [+0.035,+0.065]

  == final (n 7879, 6803 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.760 [0.751,0.770]   0.194 [0.185,0.204]   0.431 [0.413,0.449]   1.553 [1.478,1.636]   +0.177 [+0.162,+0.184] / +0.106 [+0.098,+0.115] / +0.958 [+0.898,+1.023]
  Ttype       0.760 [0.750,0.770]   0.017 [0.014,0.027]   0.325 [0.314,0.335]   0.596 [0.577,0.613]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.760 [0.750,0.770]   0.019 [0.014,0.028]   0.324 [0.314,0.334]   0.595 [0.577,0.612]   +0.002 [-0.004,+0.003] / -0.000 [-0.001,+0.000] / -0.001 [-0.001,-0.000]
  Platt       0.757 [0.748,0.766]   0.015 [0.011,0.024]   0.323 [0.313,0.334]   0.593 [0.576,0.613]   -0.002 [-0.010,+0.003] / -0.001 [-0.002,-0.001] / -0.002 [-0.004,-0.001]
  Isotonic    0.759 [0.750,0.768]   0.025 [0.019,0.033]   0.326 [0.317,0.337]   0.616 [0.595,0.640]   +0.008 [-0.003,+0.013] / +0.002 [+0.001,+0.003] / +0.021 [+0.013,+0.029]
  Hist        0.759 [0.749,0.768]   0.021 [0.018,0.031]   0.328 [0.318,0.338]   0.601 [0.584,0.619]   +0.004 [-0.002,+0.008] / +0.003 [+0.002,+0.005] / +0.005 [+0.002,+0.008]
  H2          0.737 [0.727,0.748]   0.020 [0.015,0.030]   0.348 [0.337,0.358]   0.631 [0.612,0.649]   +0.003 [-0.007,+0.011] / +0.023 [+0.018,+0.029] / +0.035 [+0.027,+0.044]

  == final-flagged (n 1000, 1000 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.519 [0.489,0.550]   0.423 [0.392,0.454]   0.889 [0.830,0.947]   3.373 [3.095,3.644]   +0.319 [+0.298,+0.331] / +0.286 [+0.250,+0.321] / +2.367 [+2.128,+2.599]
  Ttype       0.519 [0.489,0.551]   0.104 [0.076,0.135]   0.603 [0.577,0.628]   1.006 [0.963,1.048]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.519 [0.489,0.549]   0.104 [0.078,0.136]   0.603 [0.578,0.629]   1.006 [0.965,1.050]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Platt       0.514 [0.482,0.547]   0.118 [0.089,0.150]   0.609 [0.578,0.639]   1.014 [0.967,1.060]   +0.014 [-0.001,+0.030] / +0.006 [+0.003,+0.009] / +0.008 [+0.003,+0.012]
  Isotonic    0.518 [0.488,0.549]   0.134 [0.104,0.165]   0.614 [0.586,0.643]   1.023 [0.977,1.071]   +0.031 [+0.012,+0.042] / +0.011 [+0.005,+0.017] / +0.017 [+0.008,+0.027]
  Hist        0.520 [0.489,0.552]   0.123 [0.097,0.155]   0.614 [0.583,0.643]   1.024 [0.975,1.070]   +0.020 [+0.016,+0.028] / +0.011 [+0.004,+0.017] / +0.018 [+0.009,+0.027]
  H2          0.512 [0.480,0.543]   0.106 [0.082,0.138]   0.621 [0.594,0.647]   1.054 [1.009,1.101]   +0.003 [-0.016,+0.022] / +0.018 [+0.013,+0.022] / +0.048 [+0.040,+0.057]

  == final-seen (n 10300, 10300 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.714 [0.706,0.722]   0.180 [0.172,0.188]   0.460 [0.446,0.473]   1.643 [1.578,1.702]   +0.164 [+0.150,+0.171] / +0.069 [+0.064,+0.075] / +0.836 [+0.786,+0.883]
  Ttype       0.714 [0.705,0.723]   0.016 [0.013,0.025]   0.390 [0.381,0.400]   0.806 [0.788,0.826]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.715 [0.706,0.723]   0.019 [0.015,0.027]   0.390 [0.381,0.400]   0.806 [0.787,0.826]   +0.003 [-0.001,+0.005] / -0.000 [-0.000,+0.000] / -0.000 [-0.001,+0.000]
  Platt       0.712 [0.705,0.721]   0.014 [0.010,0.023]   0.391 [0.381,0.400]   0.807 [0.787,0.825]   -0.003 [-0.006,+0.001] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.001] / +0.000 [-0.000,+0.001]
  Isotonic    0.712 [0.703,0.720]   0.033 [0.026,0.041]   0.393 [0.383,0.403]   0.820 [0.800,0.843]   +0.017 [+0.007,+0.021] / +0.002 [+0.001,+0.003] / +0.014 [+0.009,+0.019]
  Hist        0.714 [0.705,0.722]   0.028 [0.022,0.036]   0.393 [0.384,0.403]   0.811 [0.792,0.830]   +0.012 [+0.005,+0.015] / +0.002 [+0.002,+0.004] / +0.004 [+0.002,+0.006]
  H2          0.713 [0.704,0.721]   0.026 [0.021,0.035]   0.386 [0.378,0.395]   0.799 [0.780,0.819]   +0.010 [+0.001,+0.016] / -0.004 [-0.007,-0.001] / -0.008 [-0.013,-0.002]

  == bench (n 2231, 595 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.715 [0.696,0.734]   0.239 [0.221,0.259]   0.509 [0.475,0.545]   1.841 [1.677,2.008]   +0.212 [+0.178,+0.232] / +0.120 [+0.104,+0.138] / +1.139 [+1.007,+1.274]
  Ttype       0.715 [0.696,0.737]   0.027 [0.019,0.048]   0.389 [0.368,0.410]   0.702 [0.668,0.735]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.713 [0.692,0.733]   0.018 [0.015,0.040]   0.388 [0.367,0.409]   0.701 [0.668,0.734]   -0.009 [-0.014,+0.004] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.000] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.000]
  Platt       0.710 [0.689,0.732]   0.032 [0.022,0.050]   0.387 [0.365,0.408]   0.698 [0.662,0.732]   +0.005 [-0.012,+0.018] / -0.002 [-0.004,-0.001] / -0.004 [-0.006,-0.001]
  Isotonic    0.716 [0.696,0.736]   0.015 [0.013,0.037]   0.386 [0.366,0.407]   0.698 [0.662,0.734]   -0.012 [-0.024,+0.007] / -0.003 [-0.005,-0.000] / -0.003 [-0.011,+0.007]
  Hist        0.715 [0.695,0.736]   0.024 [0.019,0.044]   0.389 [0.367,0.410]   0.703 [0.668,0.737]   -0.002 [-0.016,+0.014] / -0.000 [-0.003,+0.004] / +0.002 [-0.004,+0.007]
  H2          0.715 [0.695,0.734]   0.029 [0.021,0.047]   0.382 [0.364,0.401]   0.690 [0.659,0.722]   +0.002 [-0.016,+0.018] / -0.007 [-0.017,+0.003] / -0.012 [-0.027,+0.004]

  Tdomain on dev (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.694 vs Ttype 0.740 vs raw 2.267 | ECE 0.076 vs 0.099 | Brier 0.401 vs 0.420 | Tdomain better in 3/6
   n=50   families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.671 vs Ttype 0.740 vs raw 2.267 | ECE 0.069 vs 0.099 | Brier 0.398 vs 0.420 | Tdomain better in 5/6
   n=100  families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.670 vs Ttype 0.740 vs raw 2.267 | ECE 0.067 vs 0.099 | Brier 0.397 vs 0.420 | Tdomain better in 5/6
   n=200  families 4  log loss Tdomain 0.550 vs Ttype 0.649 vs raw 1.885 | ECE 0.066 vs 0.106 | Brier 0.334 vs 0.366 | Tdomain better in 3/4
   n=all  families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.670 vs Ttype 0.740 vs raw 2.267 | ECE 0.064 vs 0.099 | Brier 0.397 vs 0.420 | Tdomain better in 4/6

  Tdomain on final (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.628 vs Ttype 0.597 vs raw 1.540 | ECE 0.086 vs 0.051 | Brier 0.340 vs 0.325 | Tdomain better in 4/8
   n=50   families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.614 vs Ttype 0.597 vs raw 1.540 | ECE 0.073 vs 0.051 | Brier 0.333 vs 0.325 | Tdomain better in 3/8
   n=100  families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.592 vs Ttype 0.597 vs raw 1.540 | ECE 0.051 vs 0.051 | Brier 0.324 vs 0.325 | Tdomain better in 5/8
   n=200  families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.590 vs Ttype 0.597 vs raw 1.540 | ECE 0.044 vs 0.051 | Brier 0.322 vs 0.325 | Tdomain better in 5/8
   n=all  families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.590 vs Ttype 0.597 vs raw 1.540 | ECE 0.049 vs 0.051 | Brier 0.323 vs 0.325 | Tdomain better in 5/8

######## gemma4-12b-q8/stance
raw readout reproduced (max |diff| vs release dumps): {'dev': '1.8e-15', 'final': '1.7e-15', 'final-flagged': '1.7e-15', 'final-seen': '1.8e-15'}
fitted: {"Ttype_temperature": {"0": 7.151}, "Tdis_alpha_beta": {"0": [1.974, -0.685]}, "Platt": {"0": [1.109, -0.166]}}
dev log loss: {'Ttype': 0.8602, 'Tdis': 0.8591, 'Platt': 0.86, 'Isotonic': 0.9327, 'Hist': 0.868, 'H2': 1.0287} -> choice by protocol: Ttype

  == dev (n 2100, 2100 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.654 [0.633,0.674]   0.306 [0.287,0.326]   0.646 [0.608,0.684]   3.607 [3.372,3.844]   +0.238 [+0.219,+0.247] / +0.149 [+0.131,+0.166] / +2.746 [+2.539,+2.952]
  Ttype       0.654 [0.634,0.676]   0.069 [0.052,0.089]   0.498 [0.474,0.521]   0.860 [0.824,0.895]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.654 [0.634,0.675]   0.066 [0.051,0.087]   0.497 [0.474,0.519]   0.859 [0.825,0.893]   -0.002 [-0.007,+0.002] / -0.001 [-0.001,-0.000] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.000]
  Platt       0.648 [0.627,0.670]   0.064 [0.048,0.084]   0.497 [0.472,0.520]   0.860 [0.823,0.894]   -0.005 [-0.015,+0.006] / -0.000 [-0.002,+0.001] / -0.000 [-0.002,+0.002]
  Isotonic    0.655 [0.635,0.675]   0.077 [0.065,0.100]   0.504 [0.481,0.529]   0.933 [0.883,0.982]   +0.008 [-0.008,+0.030] / +0.007 [+0.003,+0.012] / +0.072 [+0.046,+0.101]
  Hist        0.654 [0.634,0.674]   0.060 [0.051,0.084]   0.499 [0.479,0.521]   0.868 [0.838,0.902]   -0.008 [-0.024,+0.020] / +0.002 [-0.002,+0.006] / +0.008 [+0.001,+0.014]
  H2          0.624 [0.603,0.645]   0.122 [0.106,0.143]   0.544 [0.518,0.570]   1.029 [0.973,1.084]   +0.053 [+0.039,+0.070] / +0.047 [+0.035,+0.059] / +0.169 [+0.141,+0.198]

  == final (n 1343, 315 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.827 [0.806,0.849]   0.142 [0.123,0.165]   0.310 [0.272,0.352]   1.603 [1.355,1.868]   +0.055 [+0.017,+0.097] / +0.031 [+0.014,+0.048] / +1.067 [+0.851,+1.302]
  Ttype       0.827 [0.806,0.846]   0.087 [0.068,0.106]   0.280 [0.258,0.304]   0.536 [0.505,0.572]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.827 [0.807,0.847]   0.086 [0.067,0.105]   0.279 [0.256,0.304]   0.536 [0.502,0.572]   -0.001 [-0.002,+0.005] / -0.000 [-0.001,+0.000] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.001]
  Platt       0.830 [0.808,0.850]   0.098 [0.080,0.120]   0.282 [0.260,0.306]   0.540 [0.509,0.575]   +0.011 [+0.003,+0.024] / +0.002 [+0.001,+0.004] / +0.004 [+0.002,+0.005]
  Isotonic    0.827 [0.808,0.847]   0.097 [0.079,0.120]   0.289 [0.268,0.312]   0.551 [0.513,0.589]   +0.010 [+0.003,+0.022] / +0.009 [+0.005,+0.014] / +0.014 [+0.003,+0.029]
  Hist        0.827 [0.805,0.848]   0.099 [0.078,0.119]   0.286 [0.265,0.309]   0.543 [0.511,0.577]   +0.012 [+0.006,+0.019] / +0.006 [+0.002,+0.011] / +0.006 [-0.002,+0.014]
  H2          0.812 [0.791,0.833]   0.048 [0.032,0.070]   0.287 [0.264,0.311]   0.508 [0.473,0.545]   -0.039 [-0.053,-0.018] / +0.007 [-0.004,+0.019] / -0.028 [-0.046,-0.009]

  == final-flagged (n 749, 749 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.750 [0.720,0.782]   0.201 [0.172,0.231]   0.441 [0.385,0.494]   1.978 [1.680,2.272]   +0.131 [+0.074,+0.165] / +0.071 [+0.044,+0.099] / +1.308 [+1.044,+1.556]
  Ttype       0.750 [0.717,0.784]   0.069 [0.059,0.102]   0.369 [0.341,0.404]   0.670 [0.628,0.722]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.750 [0.718,0.780]   0.066 [0.058,0.100]   0.370 [0.340,0.399]   0.670 [0.627,0.713]   -0.004 [-0.011,+0.007] / +0.000 [-0.001,+0.001] / +0.000 [-0.002,+0.003]
  Platt       0.745 [0.714,0.774]   0.079 [0.061,0.112]   0.372 [0.343,0.402]   0.674 [0.631,0.719]   +0.009 [-0.013,+0.024] / +0.002 [+0.000,+0.005] / +0.004 [+0.001,+0.006]
  Isotonic    0.749 [0.716,0.777]   0.102 [0.077,0.132]   0.379 [0.354,0.407]   0.678 [0.641,0.722]   +0.032 [-0.003,+0.043] / +0.010 [+0.004,+0.016] / +0.008 [-0.002,+0.017]
  Hist        0.750 [0.722,0.778]   0.101 [0.077,0.130]   0.380 [0.354,0.406]   0.683 [0.644,0.723]   +0.031 [-0.004,+0.038] / +0.011 [+0.005,+0.017] / +0.013 [+0.003,+0.023]
  H2          0.634 [0.601,0.668]   0.123 [0.095,0.157]   0.500 [0.470,0.531]   0.809 [0.765,0.852]   +0.054 [+0.007,+0.087] / +0.131 [+0.112,+0.151] / +0.139 [+0.111,+0.166]

  == final-seen (n 2100, 2100 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.632 [0.612,0.652]   0.321 [0.302,0.341]   0.678 [0.641,0.715]   3.630 [3.404,3.874]   +0.244 [+0.229,+0.250] / +0.169 [+0.152,+0.186] / +2.758 [+2.563,+2.973]
  Ttype       0.632 [0.611,0.652]   0.076 [0.060,0.098]   0.509 [0.485,0.533]   0.872 [0.837,0.907]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.632 [0.611,0.652]   0.077 [0.059,0.097]   0.508 [0.486,0.532]   0.871 [0.838,0.906]   +0.001 [-0.011,+0.003] / -0.001 [-0.001,+0.000] / -0.001 [-0.003,+0.000]
  Platt       0.628 [0.608,0.648]   0.072 [0.053,0.092]   0.507 [0.485,0.530]   0.869 [0.836,0.902]   -0.004 [-0.016,+0.002] / -0.002 [-0.004,-0.001] / -0.003 [-0.005,-0.002]
  Isotonic    0.632 [0.613,0.653]   0.056 [0.041,0.075]   0.503 [0.482,0.525]   0.884 [0.845,0.921]   -0.020 [-0.032,-0.011] / -0.006 [-0.010,-0.001] / +0.012 [-0.004,+0.030]
  Hist        0.632 [0.612,0.651]   0.055 [0.038,0.074]   0.506 [0.484,0.527]   0.870 [0.838,0.903]   -0.021 [-0.031,-0.015] / -0.003 [-0.007,+0.001] / -0.002 [-0.009,+0.005]
  H2          0.626 [0.606,0.646]   0.067 [0.052,0.089]   0.507 [0.486,0.528]   0.889 [0.852,0.926]   -0.009 [-0.026,+0.010] / -0.002 [-0.014,+0.010] / +0.017 [-0.003,+0.035]

  Tdomain on dev (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.832 vs Ttype 0.858 vs raw 3.589 | ECE 0.047 vs 0.094 | Brier 0.481 vs 0.497 | Tdomain better in 2/3
   n=50   families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.837 vs Ttype 0.858 vs raw 3.589 | ECE 0.050 vs 0.094 | Brier 0.484 vs 0.497 | Tdomain better in 1/3
   n=100  families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.840 vs Ttype 0.858 vs raw 3.589 | ECE 0.068 vs 0.094 | Brier 0.486 vs 0.497 | Tdomain better in 1/3
   n=200  families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.844 vs Ttype 0.858 vs raw 3.589 | ECE 0.078 vs 0.094 | Brier 0.489 vs 0.497 | Tdomain better in 1/3
   n=all  families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.834 vs Ttype 0.858 vs raw 3.589 | ECE 0.062 vs 0.094 | Brier 0.483 vs 0.497 | Tdomain better in 1/3

  Tdomain on final (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.538 vs Ttype 0.557 vs raw 1.792 | ECE 0.029 vs 0.076 | Brier 0.286 vs 0.293 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=50   families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.538 vs Ttype 0.557 vs raw 1.792 | ECE 0.031 vs 0.076 | Brier 0.285 vs 0.293 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=100  families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.554 vs Ttype 0.557 vs raw 1.792 | ECE 0.068 vs 0.076 | Brier 0.292 vs 0.293 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=200  families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.536 vs Ttype 0.557 vs raw 1.792 | ECE 0.020 vs 0.076 | Brier 0.285 vs 0.293 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=all  families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.541 vs Ttype 0.557 vs raw 1.792 | ECE 0.044 vs 0.076 | Brier 0.287 vs 0.293 | Tdomain better in 1/1

######## qwen3-4b-q8/general
raw readout reproduced (max |diff| vs release dumps): {'dev': '3.6e-15', 'final': '3.6e-15', 'final-flagged': '3.6e-15', 'final-seen': '3.6e-15', 'bench': '3.6e-15'}
fitted: {"Ttype_temperature": {"0": 6.846, "1": 13.36, "2": 24.22}, "Tdis_alpha_beta": {"0": [1.887, 0.511], "1": [2.594, -5.119], "2": [3.187, -1.595]}, "Platt": {"0": [0.954, 0.137], "1": [1.216, -0.262], "2": [1.673, 0.719]}}
dev log loss: {'Ttype': 0.6556, 'Tdis': 0.6595, 'Platt': 0.6551, 'Isotonic': 0.6817, 'Hist': 0.6571, 'H2': 0.6358} -> choice by protocol: H2

  == dev (n 4500, 4500 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.730 [0.718,0.743]   0.220 [0.209,0.234]   0.492 [0.469,0.515]   3.287 [3.093,3.492]   +0.152 [+0.140,+0.162] / +0.107 [+0.097,+0.118] / +2.631 [+2.460,+2.814]
  Ttype       0.730 [0.717,0.743]   0.069 [0.060,0.082]   0.385 [0.369,0.400]   0.656 [0.630,0.681]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.730 [0.717,0.743]   0.073 [0.064,0.085]   0.386 [0.370,0.401]   0.659 [0.632,0.685]   +0.004 [+0.002,+0.007] / +0.001 [+0.001,+0.002] / +0.004 [+0.003,+0.005]
  Platt       0.732 [0.719,0.745]   0.068 [0.059,0.082]   0.384 [0.368,0.399]   0.655 [0.630,0.681]   -0.000 [-0.006,+0.006] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.000] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.001]
  Isotonic    0.731 [0.718,0.745]   0.063 [0.056,0.077]   0.383 [0.367,0.398]   0.682 [0.650,0.714]   -0.005 [-0.012,+0.005] / -0.002 [-0.004,+0.001] / +0.026 [+0.013,+0.042]
  Hist        0.726 [0.713,0.740]   0.053 [0.044,0.066]   0.384 [0.368,0.400]   0.657 [0.632,0.683]   -0.016 [-0.027,-0.005] / -0.001 [-0.004,+0.002] / +0.002 [-0.003,+0.006]
  H2          0.731 [0.719,0.743]   0.055 [0.048,0.069]   0.380 [0.365,0.394]   0.636 [0.611,0.659]   -0.013 [-0.023,-0.001] / -0.005 [-0.011,+0.002] / -0.020 [-0.030,-0.010]

  == final (n 7879, 6803 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.656 [0.646,0.668]   0.268 [0.257,0.279]   0.602 [0.581,0.621]   3.469 [3.323,3.632]   +0.235 [+0.218,+0.248] / +0.162 [+0.150,+0.174] / +2.685 [+2.548,+2.832]
  Ttype       0.656 [0.646,0.667]   0.034 [0.027,0.043]   0.440 [0.430,0.450]   0.783 [0.765,0.800]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.656 [0.645,0.668]   0.033 [0.027,0.043]   0.440 [0.429,0.450]   0.784 [0.766,0.803]   -0.000 [-0.002,+0.002] / +0.000 [-0.000,+0.001] / +0.001 [+0.000,+0.002]
  Platt       0.656 [0.644,0.666]   0.025 [0.020,0.035]   0.437 [0.428,0.448]   0.780 [0.762,0.797]   -0.008 [-0.016,+0.002] / -0.002 [-0.003,-0.001] / -0.004 [-0.005,-0.002]
  Isotonic    0.656 [0.644,0.666]   0.027 [0.026,0.040]   0.442 [0.431,0.455]   0.868 [0.839,0.899]   -0.006 [-0.013,+0.010] / +0.003 [-0.001,+0.006] / +0.084 [+0.066,+0.104]
  Hist        0.651 [0.639,0.662]   0.017 [0.013,0.028]   0.441 [0.431,0.452]   0.779 [0.762,0.797]   -0.017 [-0.026,-0.001] / +0.001 [-0.001,+0.004] / -0.004 [-0.009,-0.000]
  H2          0.639 [0.628,0.649]   0.029 [0.025,0.041]   0.450 [0.441,0.460]   0.797 [0.780,0.814]   -0.004 [-0.013,+0.009] / +0.010 [+0.007,+0.014] / +0.013 [+0.007,+0.019]

  == final-flagged (n 1000, 1000 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.492 [0.463,0.521]   0.442 [0.412,0.472]   0.935 [0.882,0.989]   5.688 [5.236,6.148]   +0.405 [+0.348,+0.439] / +0.318 [+0.274,+0.363] / +4.663 [+4.228,+5.106]
  Ttype       0.492 [0.460,0.522]   0.037 [0.024,0.068]   0.617 [0.604,0.630]   1.025 [1.005,1.044]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.492 [0.462,0.522]   0.037 [0.024,0.069]   0.617 [0.605,0.631]   1.025 [1.006,1.046]   +0.000 [-0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [-0.000,+0.000]
  Platt       0.492 [0.461,0.523]   0.111 [0.084,0.143]   0.633 [0.608,0.658]   1.046 [1.010,1.083]   +0.074 [+0.015,+0.107] / +0.015 [+0.001,+0.029] / +0.021 [+0.002,+0.040]
  Isotonic    0.492 [0.463,0.524]   0.422 [0.393,0.455]   0.929 [0.872,0.983]   3.964 [3.692,4.238]   +0.385 [+0.325,+0.422] / +0.312 [+0.266,+0.356] / +2.940 [+2.681,+3.200]
  Hist        0.492 [0.462,0.525]   0.146 [0.113,0.175]   0.647 [0.622,0.670]   1.065 [1.030,1.100]   +0.109 [+0.055,+0.126] / +0.030 [+0.014,+0.044] / +0.041 [+0.021,+0.059]
  H2          0.487 [0.457,0.519]   0.046 [0.033,0.081]   0.620 [0.601,0.639]   1.032 [1.002,1.063]   +0.009 [-0.027,+0.041] / +0.003 [-0.003,+0.009] / +0.007 [-0.003,+0.018]

  == final-seen (n 10300, 10300 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.649 [0.640,0.659]   0.231 [0.223,0.239]   0.569 [0.553,0.583]   3.556 [3.425,3.677]   +0.194 [+0.180,+0.205] / +0.099 [+0.091,+0.106] / +2.587 [+2.471,+2.691]
  Ttype       0.649 [0.640,0.657]   0.037 [0.031,0.046]   0.470 [0.461,0.479]   0.969 [0.951,0.988]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.649 [0.640,0.658]   0.047 [0.040,0.056]   0.469 [0.460,0.479]   0.965 [0.946,0.985]   +0.010 [+0.003,+0.014] / -0.000 [-0.001,+0.000] / -0.004 [-0.005,-0.003]
  Platt       0.649 [0.640,0.658]   0.037 [0.031,0.046]   0.468 [0.459,0.478]   0.967 [0.948,0.987]   +0.000 [-0.008,+0.008] / -0.001 [-0.002,-0.001] / -0.002 [-0.003,-0.001]
  Isotonic    0.648 [0.639,0.657]   0.049 [0.044,0.058]   0.473 [0.464,0.484]   1.030 [1.006,1.056]   +0.012 [+0.002,+0.023] / +0.003 [+0.001,+0.006] / +0.061 [+0.045,+0.077]
  Hist        0.650 [0.641,0.659]   0.020 [0.014,0.029]   0.469 [0.459,0.478]   0.969 [0.949,0.988]   -0.017 [-0.027,-0.006] / -0.001 [-0.003,+0.001] / -0.001 [-0.004,+0.002]
  H2          0.654 [0.645,0.662]   0.019 [0.015,0.029]   0.457 [0.448,0.466]   0.932 [0.915,0.951]   -0.018 [-0.026,-0.007] / -0.013 [-0.015,-0.010] / -0.037 [-0.043,-0.031]

  == bench (n 2231, 595 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.588 [0.565,0.614]   0.345 [0.321,0.366]   0.734 [0.690,0.775]   4.372 [4.002,4.704]   +0.217 [+0.182,+0.243] / +0.176 [+0.150,+0.200] / +3.408 [+3.070,+3.713]
  Ttype       0.588 [0.565,0.610]   0.128 [0.113,0.148]   0.558 [0.538,0.579]   0.963 [0.932,0.996]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.588 [0.565,0.609]   0.131 [0.115,0.150]   0.559 [0.540,0.580]   0.966 [0.935,0.998]   +0.003 [-0.004,+0.006] / +0.001 [+0.000,+0.001] / +0.002 [+0.001,+0.003]
  Platt       0.583 [0.559,0.608]   0.082 [0.071,0.105]   0.548 [0.526,0.571]   0.947 [0.911,0.980]   -0.046 [-0.057,-0.026] / -0.010 [-0.013,-0.007] / -0.016 [-0.021,-0.012]
  Isotonic    0.594 [0.570,0.617]   0.114 [0.100,0.137]   0.551 [0.528,0.577]   1.015 [0.961,1.071]   -0.014 [-0.028,+0.004] / -0.007 [-0.015,+0.001] / +0.051 [+0.016,+0.092]
  Hist        0.591 [0.569,0.614]   0.092 [0.079,0.110]   0.554 [0.530,0.578]   0.964 [0.927,1.003]   -0.036 [-0.050,-0.022] / -0.004 [-0.009,+0.002] / +0.001 [-0.008,+0.011]
  H2          0.601 [0.581,0.622]   0.114 [0.100,0.134]   0.549 [0.530,0.570]   0.962 [0.929,0.997]   -0.014 [-0.032,+0.003] / -0.009 [-0.018,-0.001] / -0.002 [-0.018,+0.015]

  Tdomain on dev (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.802 vs Ttype 0.775 vs raw 4.267 | ECE 0.109 vs 0.098 | Brier 0.445 vs 0.455 | Tdomain better in 4/6
   n=50   families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.736 vs Ttype 0.775 vs raw 4.267 | ECE 0.093 vs 0.098 | Brier 0.435 vs 0.455 | Tdomain better in 4/6
   n=100  families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.724 vs Ttype 0.775 vs raw 4.267 | ECE 0.080 vs 0.098 | Brier 0.432 vs 0.455 | Tdomain better in 4/6
   n=200  families 4  log loss Tdomain 0.586 vs Ttype 0.650 vs raw 3.283 | ECE 0.073 vs 0.104 | Brier 0.358 vs 0.389 | Tdomain better in 2/4
   n=all  families 6  log loss Tdomain 0.722 vs Ttype 0.775 vs raw 4.267 | ECE 0.076 vs 0.098 | Brier 0.432 vs 0.455 | Tdomain better in 5/6

  Tdomain on final (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.779 vs Ttype 0.788 vs raw 3.426 | ECE 0.056 vs 0.064 | Brier 0.438 vs 0.439 | Tdomain better in 5/8
   n=50   families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.777 vs Ttype 0.788 vs raw 3.426 | ECE 0.053 vs 0.064 | Brier 0.436 vs 0.439 | Tdomain better in 5/8
   n=100  families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.771 vs Ttype 0.788 vs raw 3.426 | ECE 0.050 vs 0.064 | Brier 0.435 vs 0.439 | Tdomain better in 6/8
   n=200  families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.767 vs Ttype 0.788 vs raw 3.426 | ECE 0.040 vs 0.064 | Brier 0.433 vs 0.439 | Tdomain better in 7/8
   n=all  families 8  log loss Tdomain 0.768 vs Ttype 0.788 vs raw 3.426 | ECE 0.045 vs 0.064 | Brier 0.434 vs 0.439 | Tdomain better in 7/8

######## qwen3-4b-q8/stance
raw readout reproduced (max |diff| vs release dumps): {'dev': '3.6e-15', 'final': '3.6e-15', 'final-flagged': '3.2e-15', 'final-seen': '3.2e-15'}
fitted: {"Ttype_temperature": {"0": 12.391}, "Tdis_alpha_beta": {"0": [2.523, -0.402]}, "Platt": {"0": [0.994, -0.033]}}
dev log loss: {'Ttype': 1.0056, 'Tdis': 1.0064, 'Platt': 1.0016, 'Isotonic': 0.9944, 'Hist': 1.0061, 'H2': 1.1936} -> choice by protocol: Isotonic

  == dev (n 2100, 2100 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.549 [0.526,0.569]   0.396 [0.376,0.419]   0.829 [0.792,0.870]   7.055 [6.636,7.470]   +0.286 [+0.280,+0.291] / +0.233 [+0.215,+0.254] / +6.049 [+5.660,+6.428]
  Ttype       0.549 [0.528,0.569]   0.110 [0.092,0.131]   0.595 [0.575,0.617]   1.006 [0.974,1.038]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.549 [0.529,0.571]   0.109 [0.089,0.130]   0.595 [0.573,0.617]   1.006 [0.973,1.038]   -0.000 [-0.006,+0.003] / -0.000 [-0.001,+0.000] / +0.001 [-0.000,+0.002]
  Platt       0.546 [0.525,0.566]   0.105 [0.085,0.126]   0.593 [0.573,0.613]   1.002 [0.973,1.032]   -0.005 [-0.010,-0.001] / -0.002 [-0.003,-0.002] / -0.004 [-0.005,-0.003]
  Isotonic    0.549 [0.526,0.571]   0.094 [0.074,0.117]   0.588 [0.569,0.612]   0.994 [0.965,1.029]   -0.016 [-0.022,-0.013] / -0.007 [-0.009,-0.005] / -0.011 [-0.015,-0.008]
  Hist        0.549 [0.528,0.571]   0.108 [0.087,0.129]   0.596 [0.574,0.616]   1.006 [0.974,1.037]   -0.002 [-0.009,+0.001] / +0.000 [-0.002,+0.003] / +0.001 [-0.003,+0.004]
  H2          0.536 [0.514,0.558]   0.209 [0.188,0.231]   0.658 [0.630,0.687]   1.194 [1.143,1.247]   +0.100 [+0.083,+0.114] / +0.063 [+0.050,+0.075] / +0.188 [+0.161,+0.215]

  == final (n 1343, 315 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.778 [0.753,0.801]   0.187 [0.166,0.213]   0.410 [0.367,0.456]   3.184 [2.780,3.617]   +0.094 [+0.050,+0.143] / +0.054 [+0.030,+0.079] / +2.535 [+2.166,+2.934]
  Ttype       0.778 [0.754,0.800]   0.093 [0.070,0.115]   0.357 [0.335,0.381]   0.649 [0.617,0.683]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.778 [0.757,0.801]   0.093 [0.073,0.117]   0.357 [0.334,0.380]   0.650 [0.617,0.681]   +0.001 [-0.000,+0.004] / +0.000 [-0.000,+0.001] / +0.000 [-0.001,+0.001]
  Platt       0.782 [0.758,0.803]   0.104 [0.082,0.126]   0.359 [0.338,0.382]   0.653 [0.624,0.687]   +0.011 [+0.007,+0.018] / +0.002 [+0.002,+0.003] / +0.004 [+0.003,+0.004]
  Isotonic    0.776 [0.754,0.800]   0.103 [0.082,0.127]   0.362 [0.341,0.383]   0.656 [0.626,0.686]   +0.010 [+0.006,+0.013] / +0.005 [+0.002,+0.007] / +0.007 [+0.003,+0.011]
  Hist        0.778 [0.757,0.800]   0.099 [0.076,0.121]   0.360 [0.338,0.383]   0.656 [0.624,0.690]   +0.006 [+0.004,+0.009] / +0.004 [+0.002,+0.006] / +0.007 [+0.003,+0.010]
  H2          0.773 [0.751,0.796]   0.052 [0.034,0.077]   0.337 [0.315,0.360]   0.595 [0.561,0.628]   -0.040 [-0.059,-0.016] / -0.020 [-0.034,-0.005] / -0.055 [-0.075,-0.034]

  == final-flagged (n 749, 749 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.718 [0.686,0.752]   0.227 [0.196,0.259]   0.510 [0.455,0.569]   3.605 [3.084,4.119]   +0.175 [+0.113,+0.224] / +0.100 [+0.069,+0.131] / +2.900 [+2.421,+3.373]
  Ttype       0.718 [0.690,0.752]   0.052 [0.032,0.084]   0.410 [0.378,0.439]   0.705 [0.663,0.746]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.718 [0.685,0.749]   0.051 [0.029,0.085]   0.410 [0.379,0.442]   0.704 [0.662,0.750]   -0.001 [-0.007,+0.005] / -0.000 [-0.001,+0.000] / -0.001 [-0.002,+0.001]
  Platt       0.721 [0.690,0.754]   0.058 [0.037,0.094]   0.411 [0.381,0.439]   0.707 [0.664,0.747]   +0.006 [-0.008,+0.017] / +0.001 [+0.000,+0.002] / +0.002 [+0.001,+0.003]
  Isotonic    0.714 [0.682,0.746]   0.057 [0.041,0.092]   0.408 [0.379,0.437]   0.704 [0.663,0.744]   +0.005 [-0.011,+0.029] / -0.002 [-0.005,+0.002] / -0.001 [-0.006,+0.004]
  Hist        0.718 [0.686,0.750]   0.054 [0.031,0.087]   0.415 [0.386,0.446]   0.713 [0.673,0.755]   +0.002 [-0.013,+0.014] / +0.005 [+0.001,+0.008] / +0.008 [+0.003,+0.013]
  H2          0.541 [0.506,0.577]   0.150 [0.127,0.191]   0.591 [0.556,0.626]   0.928 [0.880,0.978]   +0.098 [+0.052,+0.150] / +0.181 [+0.161,+0.202] / +0.223 [+0.196,+0.252]

  == final-seen (n 2100, 2100 units)
  variant                accuracy                   ECE                 Brier              log loss   minus Ttype: ECE / Brier / log loss
  raw         0.571 [0.551,0.591]   0.354 [0.333,0.374]   0.766 [0.730,0.802]   5.891 [5.552,6.241]   +0.295 [+0.267,+0.303] / +0.194 [+0.173,+0.215] / +4.925 [+4.608,+5.248]
  Ttype       0.571 [0.552,0.591]   0.059 [0.048,0.084]   0.572 [0.553,0.591]   0.965 [0.938,0.993]   +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] / +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000]
  Tdis        0.571 [0.551,0.593]   0.057 [0.045,0.080]   0.572 [0.553,0.592]   0.967 [0.938,0.996]   -0.001 [-0.005,+0.003] / +0.000 [-0.000,+0.001] / +0.002 [+0.001,+0.004]
  Platt       0.574 [0.554,0.594]   0.056 [0.042,0.080]   0.571 [0.552,0.589]   0.964 [0.936,0.991]   -0.002 [-0.011,+0.003] / -0.001 [-0.001,-0.000] / -0.002 [-0.003,-0.001]
  Isotonic    0.568 [0.546,0.590]   0.036 [0.024,0.060]   0.568 [0.549,0.587]   0.959 [0.932,0.989]   -0.022 [-0.036,-0.012] / -0.004 [-0.006,-0.002] / -0.006 [-0.010,-0.003]
  Hist        0.573 [0.552,0.597]   0.053 [0.039,0.075]   0.573 [0.553,0.592]   0.967 [0.937,0.996]   -0.006 [-0.014,-0.001] / +0.001 [-0.001,+0.003] / +0.001 [-0.002,+0.005]
  H2          0.548 [0.526,0.570]   0.101 [0.083,0.122]   0.592 [0.571,0.615]   0.997 [0.963,1.034]   +0.042 [+0.019,+0.057] / +0.020 [+0.008,+0.033] / +0.032 [+0.013,+0.053]

  Tdomain on dev (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.967 vs Ttype 1.022 vs raw 7.260 | ECE 0.065 vs 0.142 | Brier 0.572 vs 0.606 | Tdomain better in 2/3
   n=50   families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.971 vs Ttype 1.022 vs raw 7.260 | ECE 0.070 vs 0.142 | Brier 0.575 vs 0.606 | Tdomain better in 2/3
   n=100  families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.978 vs Ttype 1.022 vs raw 7.260 | ECE 0.081 vs 0.142 | Brier 0.579 vs 0.606 | Tdomain better in 2/3
   n=200  families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.980 vs Ttype 1.022 vs raw 7.260 | ECE 0.089 vs 0.142 | Brier 0.580 vs 0.606 | Tdomain better in 2/3
   n=all  families 3  log loss Tdomain 0.970 vs Ttype 1.022 vs raw 7.260 | ECE 0.067 vs 0.142 | Brier 0.574 vs 0.606 | Tdomain better in 2/3

  Tdomain on final (fit on half A of each family, judged on half B; mean over families)
   n=25   families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.647 vs Ttype 0.665 vs raw 3.336 | ECE 0.033 vs 0.084 | Brier 0.361 vs 0.369 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=50   families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.648 vs Ttype 0.665 vs raw 3.336 | ECE 0.027 vs 0.084 | Brier 0.361 vs 0.369 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=100  families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.659 vs Ttype 0.665 vs raw 3.336 | ECE 0.068 vs 0.084 | Brier 0.365 vs 0.369 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=200  families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.647 vs Ttype 0.665 vs raw 3.336 | ECE 0.026 vs 0.084 | Brier 0.360 vs 0.369 | Tdomain better in 1/1
   n=all  families 1  log loss Tdomain 0.648 vs Ttype 0.665 vs raw 3.336 | ECE 0.034 vs 0.084 | Brier 0.361 vs 0.369 | Tdomain better in 1/1
