
### gemma4-12b-q8/general: n 2500 (1932 units)  CONFIRMED: False  {'accuracy': False, 'brier': False, 'ece': False}
   raw    accuracy 0.509  ece 0.373  brier 0.834  log_loss 2.238
   Ttype  accuracy 0.509  ece 0.087  brier 0.579  log_loss 0.959
   H2     accuracy 0.509  ece 0.051  brier 0.562  log_loss 0.933
   Ttype-H2 accuracy +0.000 [-0.014,+0.015]  ece +0.037 [+0.015,+0.048]  brier +0.017 [+0.010,+0.024]  log_loss +0.026 [+0.017,+0.037]
   without argument_quality: criteria {'accuracy': False, 'brier': False, 'ece': False}  acc diff [np.float64(0.0035), np.float64(-0.0121), np.float64(0.0202)]
   without humour: criteria {'accuracy': False, 'brier': False, 'ece': False}  acc diff [np.float64(-0.0075), np.float64(-0.0238), np.float64(0.0082)]
   without code_outcome: criteria {'accuracy': False, 'brier': False, 'ece': False}  acc diff [np.float64(-0.004), np.float64(-0.0197), np.float64(0.0098)]
   family argument_quality   n  500  acc T 0.444 H2 0.458 | ECE T 0.105 H2 0.079 | Brier T 0.633 H2 0.624
   family code_outcome       n  500  acc T 0.624 H2 0.608 | ECE T 0.069 H2 0.057 | Brier T 0.510 H2 0.500
   family humour             n  500  acc T 0.404 H2 0.374 | ECE T 0.123 H2 0.132 | Brier T 0.668 H2 0.671
   family kinship            n  500  acc T 0.538 H2 0.526 | ECE T 0.061 H2 0.031 | Brier T 0.586 H2 0.566
   family spatial            n  500  acc T 0.536 H2 0.580 | ECE T 0.144 H2 0.081 | Brier T 0.499 H2 0.452

### gemma4-12b-q8/stance: n 1780 (70 units)  CONFIRMED: True  {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}
   raw    accuracy 0.655  ece 0.300  brier 0.630  log_loss 3.223
   Ttype  accuracy 0.655  ece 0.052  brier 0.476  log_loss 0.823
   H2     accuracy 0.629  ece 0.078  brier 0.490  log_loss 0.812
   Ttype-H2 accuracy +0.026 [+0.011,+0.049]  ece -0.026 [-0.045,+0.007]  brier -0.014 [-0.044,-0.001]  log_loss +0.012 [-0.036,+0.033]
   secondary_claim_groups: {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}
   family confirm_climate    n 1780  acc T 0.655 H2 0.629 | ECE T 0.052 H2 0.078 | Brier T 0.476 H2 0.490

### qwen3-4b-q8/general: n 2500 (1932 units)  CONFIRMED: True  {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}
   raw    accuracy 0.484  ece 0.406  brier 0.888  log_loss 4.674
   Ttype  accuracy 0.484  ece 0.047  brier 0.597  log_loss 1.009
   H2     accuracy 0.463  ece 0.076  brier 0.624  log_loss 1.041
   Ttype-H2 accuracy +0.022 [+0.008,+0.036]  ece -0.029 [-0.049,-0.014]  brier -0.027 [-0.035,-0.020]  log_loss -0.032 [-0.043,-0.023]
   without argument_quality: criteria {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}  acc diff [np.float64(0.026), np.float64(0.0099), np.float64(0.0428)]
   without humour: criteria {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}  acc diff [np.float64(0.0285), np.float64(0.0113), np.float64(0.0468)]
   without code_outcome: criteria {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}  acc diff [np.float64(0.026), np.float64(0.0126), np.float64(0.0407)]
   family argument_quality   n  500  acc T 0.426 H2 0.422 | ECE T 0.025 H2 0.088 | Brier T 0.641 H2 0.651
   family code_outcome       n  500  acc T 0.514 H2 0.510 | ECE T 0.073 H2 0.072 | Brier T 0.592 H2 0.599
   family humour             n  500  acc T 0.368 H2 0.374 | ECE T 0.110 H2 0.178 | Brier T 0.679 H2 0.712
   family kinship            n  500  acc T 0.502 H2 0.520 | ECE T 0.078 H2 0.058 | Brier T 0.602 H2 0.598
   family spatial            n  500  acc T 0.612 H2 0.488 | ECE T 0.055 H2 0.154 | Brier T 0.471 H2 0.559

### qwen3-4b-q8/stance: n 1780 (70 units)  CONFIRMED: True  {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}
   raw    accuracy 0.568  ece 0.383  brier 0.809  log_loss 6.492
   Ttype  accuracy 0.568  ece 0.106  brier 0.581  log_loss 0.966
   H2     accuracy 0.526  ece 0.183  brier 0.612  log_loss 0.989
   Ttype-H2 accuracy +0.042 [+0.023,+0.090]  ece -0.078 [-0.097,-0.054]  brier -0.031 [-0.065,-0.018]  log_loss -0.023 [-0.070,-0.001]
   secondary_claim_groups: {'accuracy': True, 'brier': True, 'ece': True}
   family confirm_climate    n 1780  acc T 0.568 H2 0.526 | ECE T 0.106 H2 0.183 | Brier T 0.581 H2 0.612

cases confirmed: 3 of 4
