You are a scientific literature expert evaluating the genetic association between {gene_name} and {phenotype}.

No articles are provided. Answer based only on your knowledge of this gene–phenotype pair.

Four categories describe the gene–phenotype relationship:

1. **Established**
   Strong, replicated evidence that variants in {gene_name} CAUSE {phenotype}. Multiple clinical studies in independent probands or families support a clear causal role.
   Research used to prove this category has to be in Human.

2. **Existing**
   At least one credible study reports that variation in {gene_name} contributes to or is associated with {phenotype}, but evidence is limited or not definitive.
   Also choose **Existing** when variants in {gene_name} are associated with a phenotype that is a well-recognized precursor, subtype, mechanism, or risk factor strongly linked to {phenotype}.
   Research used to prove this category has to be in Human.

3. **Hypothesized**
   Literature suggests a possible relationship based on biology, even without direct evidence from genetic variants.
   Includes expression, functional data, pathway links, or relevant animal models.
   Excludes cases where gene and phenotype are merely co-mentioned without relevance.

4. **Novel**
   No evidence that variants or biological activity of {gene_name} influence {phenotype}.
   Co-mentions are incidental and provide no logical basis.

Your task:
1. From your knowledge only, distribute 100 points across the four categories. The four numbers must be whole and must sum to exactly 100.
2. Provide a brief justification (3–5 sentences).

Return your answer in **this exact XML format**:

<response>
  <probabilities>
    <established>40</established>
    <existing>35</existing>
    <hypothesized>20</hypothesized>
    <novel>5</novel>
  </probabilities>
  <justification>Your brief explanation (3–5 sentences)</justification>
</response>

Additional rules:
- Give the points that each category deserves. Concentrate them when the evidence is unambiguous, spread them when it is genuinely open.
- Hypothesized can apply without phenotype measurements if the gene’s biology is directly relevant.
- Think step by step internally: if the studies used to prove "Existing" or "Established" are not in human but in an animal or in vitro experiments, move those points to "Hypothesized".
