174 
ACUS11 KWNS 181749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181749 
MSZ000-252145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 190549Z - 190715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/damaging winds, large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms
that will move across the lower Mississippi Valley through the early morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Surface front continues to advance slowly east across LA into western MS late this
evening. This boundary is becoming less forced with time as the primary upper trough is lifting
north-northeast across western IA. Some semblance of a LLJ persists ahead of the front from southeast
LA into MS, and this appears to be aiding frontal convection that is currently concentrated from
western MS into southwest LA. Latest radar data suggests some organization to the squall line and a few
bow-type structures are evident along the leading edge of convection. Strong/damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazard, with some risk for a couple of tornadoes given strong low-level shear and
potential for embedded QLCS circulations. Additionally, any semi-discrete and persistent storm ahead of
the line will also pose some risk for large hail as storms move east into the early morning hours. Current
thinking is that a watch may be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Darrow/Hart.. 11/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30199264 32449081 32119008 30229160 30199264

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 INCHES
